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Analysts interviewed by Reuters expect the Reserve Bank of India to raise interest rates in August due to concerns that the already higher than target inflation rate will rise further, and in the survey one month ago, analysts also expected the central bank to reach 2019. The rate will be raised in the second half of the year.

The sharp shift in expectations of rate hikes was due to the fact that India’s April consumer price index (CPI) rose 4.58% year-on-year, an increase of six consecutive months higher than the central bank’s target inflation rate of 4%, and the three previous The monthly CPI increase has been declining.

Reuters survey of nearly 60 analysts during May 24-30 showed that the central bank of India will raise the coupon back rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% in August.

Analysts’ median forecast shows that the Indian Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged when it holds a policy meeting on June 6. However, about 40% of analysts expect the central bank to raise interest rates next week.

"As the turmoil in the global market constitutes a blow, we have changed our estimate of the Indian Central Bank's policy interest rate, from the previous expectation that the central bank will continue to change rates unchanged by 25 basis points in August," said Societe Generale's India Economic Analysis. Kunal Kundu said.

"The Indian Central Bank may announce its adjustment policy position at the June meeting and then raise interest rates at the August meeting."

As India's 80% of fuel demand depends on imports, and government spending will increase before next year's election - which will likely increase price pressures - expectations of India's central bank will no longer adopt a neutral policy position next week.


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