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The British Commodities Institute (CRU), an industry consultancy, said aluminium exports from China were expected to increase significantly in the coming months and next year after China raised the rebate rate as part of a plan to mitigate the impact of the trade war with the United States.
In recent years, China's massive exports of metals, such as aluminum and steel, have attracted criticism from the United States and the European Union, and have been one of the reasons why the United States has imposed higher tariffs.
Greg Wittbecker, a senior CRU analyst, said China last month raised the value-added tax (VAT) rebate on semi-finished aluminum exports from 13% to 16%.
He added that this would increase the export of legitimate semi manufactured products and so-called "semi manufactured products". Pseudo-semi-finished products only process primary metals to a level sufficient to avoid China's export tax on unwrought metals and are eligible for VAT rebates.
This "fake semi finished product" is often remelted into primary metal by end users.
"We believe that semi-finished aluminum exports will increase substantially in the period of 2019 and that pseudo-semi-finished aluminum exports may reach 800,000 tons," he said at the annual meeting of the London Metal Exchange (LME Week).
Wittbecker says exports are rising even before tax rebates are raised, because a 13% rebate has made exports profitable.


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