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China's Hong Kong branch of Shanghai Morgan, a joint venture fund company, said on Thursday it expects inflation pressure in the fourth quarter to be milder than in the third quarter, but limited by the Fed's interest-rate hike cycle, short-term policy interest rates are difficult to lower. Domestic economic growth in the fourth quarter is mainly stable, and the end-of-year funding may be tighter than in the third quarter.
Zhong Weilun, senior fund manager of Shanghai Morgan (Hong Kong), believes that the Central Bank of China has increased its medium and long-term capital investment to protect reasonable and abundant liquidity. However, with the increase of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, the central bank's space for monetary liberalization has been relatively limited. The focus of future monetary policy is to dredge the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and implement credit liberalization.
"Local fiscal policy is constrained by soft constraints in dealing with implicit debt. Through special debt financing, the investment in construction projects will be stabilized within the year. The growth of infrastructure projects next year will still be seen in the central financial investment projects." "The progress of tax cuts and fee cuts in the fourth quarter deserves our attention. The timely landing will help stimulate the vitality of the private economy," he said.
Regarding the view of the bond market, he said that in the fourth quarter, some negative factors affecting the bond market will tend to be weakened, but after the second round of tariffs between China and the United States landed, the market has a strong expectation of stable domestic demand for infrastructure underpinnings or maintaining strong expectations. Since the Political Bureau meeting in July, the transmission effect of the central bank's "lenient currency" and "lenient credit" policies has gradually emerged. It is expected that the domestic debt market will be dominated by shock market.


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