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According to a report released Monday by Bank of Singapore Dahua, China's Central Economic Work Conference, which concluded last week, offered more support policies, so the Bank continues to expect China to reduce its deposit reserve ratio again between the end of this year and the beginning of next year. If the economy remains weak, it may reduce the reserve ratio by two to three times, but at present it seems unlikely to cut interest rates.
The report also pointed out that the Central Bank of China may keep its policy interest rate unchanged at least in the first half of 2019, as China-US interest rate spreads are expected to keep liquidity stable and resist the pressure of RMB devaluation. The bank maintained a gradual decline in the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar to more than 7.00 next year, expecting 6.95 and 7.00 at the end of the first and second quarters of next year respectively, while further drops to 7.10 at the end of the third and fourth quarters.
Last Friday's closing session of the Central Economic Working Conference of China proposed that next year's macroeconomic policies should strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, timely pre-adjustment and fine-tuning, stabilize aggregate demand, and continue to implement active fiscal policy and sound monetary policy. Steady monetary policy should be relaxed and moderate, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, increase the proportion of direct financing, and solve the problem of difficult and expensive financing for private enterprises and small and micro enterprises.


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