NEWS： China's GDP growth is expected to slow in the fourth quarter
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China's GDP in the fourth quarter of 2018 and industrial added value, investment and consumption in December
Publication time: January 21 (next Monday) 10:00 local time
Survey results: (year on year,%)
Prediction interval of pre-median value for the same period of last year
Fourth quarter GDP 6.46.56.1 ~ 6.7 6.8 53
Industrial added value 5.3 5.4 5.0 to 6.2 6.2 29
Fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) (January-December) 6.05.9 5.5-7.1 7.2 25
Total retail sales of social consumer goods 8.28.1 7.9-10.19.4 28
Note: The pre-GDP is the third quarter data, and the pre-investment of fixed assets is the data from January to November.
According to Reuters'median forecast of more than 50 institutions, China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 is expected to fall further to 6.4% year-on-year due to the slowdown of industry, sluggish investment and the recession of export order-snatching effect. If so, it would be the lowest quarterly growth rate since the first quarter of 2009, when it was 6.4%.
Meanwhile, China's official and new PMI fell below the boom and bust line in December, indicating weak manufacturing growth. Industrial growth is expected to slip slightly to 5.3% in December, the lowest since February 2002, when it was only 2.7%. The downward pressure of the economy is becoming heavier and heavier, which calls for further intensification of the policy of steady growth.
UBS Securities macro team analysis in the report said that the decline in coal consumption of major power plants in December was narrowed, indicating that the annual growth rate of power generation may be slightly improved, especially in coastal provinces; however, the average productivity utilization rate of large and medium-sized steel mills in December was slightly lower than that of last month, possibly because of the effective environmental production restriction measures in the heating season, especially affecting northern provinces. In addition, car sales are still weak, and related production may be relatively weak.
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