NEWS： Turkey's economy or recession
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Reuters surveys show that the Turkish economy began to shrink in the fourth quarter of 2018 and will not grow again until the third quarter of 2019, which may not meet the government's expectations until 2021, highlighting the serious harm caused by the currency crisis.
The Turkish lira plunged nearly 30% against the dollar in 2018, pushing up prices for everything from food to fuel and pushing annual inflation to a 15-year high of more than 25%.
According to a Reuters survey of 51 economic analysts, the Turkish economy will grow by only 0.2% in 2019 and 3.0% next year, significantly lower than the government's already sharply reduced estimates of 2.3% and 3.5%, respectively.
"We expect Turkey's economic recession to be more severe than most people expect. GDP growth will weaken dramatically and may hit a trough in the first quarter, "Capital Economics said in a report, adding that the country's economy is expected to recover slowly later this year.
The survey also shows that Turkey's economy is estimated to shrink by 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2018, a larger contraction than the 1.4% forecast in the October survey.
The latest survey shows that Turkey's economy is expected to shrink by 2.1% in the first quarter, thus formally entering a recession, i.e. two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
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