NEWS： The shutdown of the U.S. government will undermine economic growth
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But according to analysts'median estimates, the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. economy in the next 12 months remains stable at 20%, and, like last month's survey, the likelihood of a recession in the next two years remains stable at 40%.
The latest Reuters survey also shows that economic growth is expected to decline in the quarter of 2019, in line with a series of recent weak U.S. data showing that the economy will be worse this year than last year. The survey was conducted on January 16-23 and interviewed more than 100 analysts.
"Given that the economy is likely to slow down and inflation is not very high, the reasons for further tightening monetary policy seem weak," said Michael Moran, chief analyst at Daiwa Capital Markets.
The partial shutdown of the U.S. government has lasted for more than a month, affecting 800,000 federal employees, which is expected to hurt the already slowing U.S. economy. The U.S. Senate will vote on a three-week funding bill for the government on Thursday.
Nearly 60% of the 50 or so economists who answered additional questions said that the closure of the U.S. government would have a significant impact on GDP growth in the first quarter.
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