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Reuters surveys show that some analysts expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to further relax its already very loose monetary policy against the backdrop of economic slowdown risks and doubts about whether inflation will reach the central bank's target level. The number of analysts who hold this view is small, but the camp is expanding. Of the 38 analysts interviewed in the Reuters poll, 29 still expect the next step for the central bank to take is to reduce the huge stimulus package.
But nine analysts said the central bank would instead expand its stimulus policy by buying more assets, so as to inject capital into the financial system and slightly revise the wording of the forward-looking guidelines. In last month's survey, only five analysts held that view.
Sino-US trade frictions and the upcoming consumer tax increase in October cast a shadow on the economy.
"If the risk of recession rises, the Bank of Japan is expected to ease its policy further," said Hiroshi Ugai, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase Securities in Japan. He was one of nine analysts who predicted expanded easing.
The Bank of Japan insists that inflation remains on track to reach its 2% target, and 33 of 36 analysts questioned said they disagree. The survey was conducted from February 7 to 20.
The Bank of Japan lowered its inflation forecast last month, but kept stimulus measures unchanged. Bank President Yoshihiko Kuroda warned that trade protectionism and weak global demand had increased economic risks.
Among the analysts predicting that the BOJ will reduce its stimulus measures, many say that the BOJ will reduce its stimulus measures by 2020 or later.


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