NEWS： Euro is expected to strengthen before the end of the year
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Bank of America Merrill Lynch, an investment bank, issued a report saying that it had a constructive view on the euro for the rest of the year and its basic forecast was that the euro would strengthen against the dollar before the end of the year; if the euro zone data strengthened, it was estimated that the ECB would be more likely to raise interest rates by the end of this year or early next year, ahead of market expectations.
The report says the euro / dollar is currently at its weakest point in history, but the bank believes that the weakness of the euro is consistent with regional economic data. However, the bank said it had seen early signs of stabilization of euro zone data, which could squeeze the market's short positions in the euro, although not serious, but the recent flow of funds to the euro turned positive. The bank believes that the impact of economic data on the euro may be asymmetric, while positive surprises may be greater.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch said there were still two short-term downside risks affecting the Euro exchange rate, including Britain's non-agreement to leave Europe and US-EU trade agreement negotiations. But the bank's basic forecast for the euro has assumed that these risks have not been met, as well as factors such as the slowdown of the U.S. economy, the stabilization of euro zone data and continued improvement.
Assuming that tariffs between the United States and the European Union will not be raised and that Britain is leaving Europe smoothly, it is believed that the performance of the euro for the rest of the year will depend on euro zone data. If the euro adjusts upwards, it will benefit greatly from better economic data, which will allow the ECB to raise interest rates by the end of this year or early next year, ahead of the market forecast for the end of 2020.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch said recent capital flows to the euro had turned positive. According to data from the bank, hedge funds and real money have bought euros and sold dollars in recent weeks. Among them, the inflows to real investor accounts are stronger, which is a sharp change from the strong selling situation at the beginning of the year.
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