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According to the latest report of China Construction Bank Financial Market Research Office, based on the logic of counter-cyclical adjustment of the central bank, considering the basic currency gap and economic fundamentals in the second quarter, the central bank is expected to lower its benchmark once in the second quarter. However, the bank also pointed out that the statutory deposit reserve ratio has been reduced by 8 percentage points since 2012, and there is very limited room for further substantial reduction.
The report also estimates that if the central bank lowers its benchmark by 0.5 percentage points in the second quarter, it will release nearly 700 billion yuan of RMB capital, which can partly cover the gap between April tax payment and the expiration of MLF (medium-term lending facilities). At that time, the central bank will continue the MLF due in the second quarter according to economic and financial data.
Similarly, if the benchmark is reduced by 1 percentage point, nearly 1.400 billion yuan of funds will be released, which can cover the second quarter fund gap. MLF may not be renewed after expiration. The central bank will carry out reverse repurchase operations to smooth the liquidity seasonal fluctuations according to the level of funds.
The bank also pointed out that with the continuous progress of interest rate marketization reform and the improvement of deposit insurance system, the central bank will pay more attention to the initiative of monetary control in the future, guide market interest rates through policy interest rates, promote the "two tracks in one track" of interest rate market, and pay more attention to dredging monetary policy transmission mechanism, fine-tuning the reserve rate in a targeted way, and in the long run, the policy of reserve rate will be more important. The role of tools has changed quietly and is returning to its original intention from the quantitative tools of the central bank's normalized liquidity management.


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