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The leading indicator of China's economy - the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI declined in April, but remained above the critical point and continued the expansion. This shows that the pace of industrial production activities has slowed down, and there is still an endogenous decline trend in the short term. The foundation for economic stabilization needs to be further stabilized, and measures to stabilize growth will not be absent.

Analysts pointed out that industrial data will show certain resilience under the joint influence of both supply and demand, but the main line of follow-up policy is still on the “supply side”, which means that the economic fundamentals will not recover significantly. As the Sino-US trade negotiations are expected to improve, new export orders have performed well. It is expected that exports will not become a significant drag factor in the short term.

The National Bureau of Statistics and the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) jointly announced on Tuesday that the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.1 in April, lower than the Reuters survey's median estimate of 50.5, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. For the second consecutive month, it is above the 50 critical point.

“The official manufacturing PMI is lower than expected, meaning that the economy may not be as optimistic as the market recently expected. We believe that while continuing structural de-leveraging, there will be no shortage of steady growth measures.” Li Qilin of Lianxun Securities Zhang Deli said.

Zou Qiang, a macro strategy analyst at Everbright Prudential Fund, believes that some of the data fallback cannot be explained by seasonal factors, mainly due to the decline in production and new orders representing supply and demand. As tax cuts continue to fall, the situation on the corporate side will improve, so that the economy will not have a significant retracement.


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