please contact sales@tanchin.hk for any inquiry
The Fifth China Fixed Income Market Outlook Survey in 2019 anticipates that the central bank will maintain the benchmark deposit interest rate in May, and there will be no body to believe that the benchmark interest rate will be adjusted in the next three months. The expectation of a comprehensive reduction in the reserve requirement ratio in May dropped dramatically, with only 2% of the institutions expected to reduce the reserve requirement ratio in the current month; however, the expectation of a reduction in the next three months is still not low, accounting for about one third.
Previous trade negotiations between China and the United States, which had progressed smoothly, had suddenly become a variable. If the United States raised tariffs on Chinese goods, the deterioration of the prospects for trade warfare might have overshadowed China's economy, which had begun to stabilize. However, the latest progress is that this week's Sino-US trade negotiations will be held as scheduled, indicating that there is still room for redemption of the dispute between the two sides. Considering the uncertain prospects for trade war, the pace of marginal convergence of monetary policy may be delayed, but there is also limited room for further easing.
Looking forward to May, the trade war will resume, the central bank's directional reduction will follow, the policy attitude will ease temporarily, and the short-term fund expectations will also tend to be optimistic. Although the scale of tax payment in May is not small, but overall less than April, combined with the small maturity of MLF (medium-term lending facilities), the expected liquidity pressure is limited; however, if the price of funds is too low, it may also trigger window guidance, repurchase rate material downward space is limited.
The results show that the weighted average overnight pledge repurchase rate and seven-day interest rate of interbank deposit institutions in May, and the predicted average of Shibor in March are 2.3763%, 2.6219% and 2.8459% respectively, which are 3.3 BP higher, 0.3 BP lower and 3.3 BP higher than the actual average in April.
In April, the bond market adjusted sharply, but it was not until the end of the month that it had a chance to breathe. As the trade war returns to twists and turns, the bond market continues to warm up in early May, but there are still many uncertainties in the follow-up trade negotiations. In addition, economic and financial data will be released in April. Whether the fundamentals can continue to warm up needs further attention. Until all factors are clear, the bond market is still lacking in momentum to continue to strengthen, and may enter a period of deadlock in the short term.


please contact sales@tanchin.hk for any inquiry
PREVIOUS:Bearing side cover packing Improvement        

RNAO50X62X20 RNAO45X55X17 RNAO40X55X20 RNAO40X50X17 RNAO35X47X18 RNAO35X47X16 RNAO35X45X17 RNAO35X45X13 RNAO30X42X16 RNAO30X40X17 RNAO25X37X16 RNAO25X35X17 RNAO22X35X16 RNAO22X30X13 RNAO20X32X12 RNAO20X28X13 RNAO17X25X13 RNAO16X28X12 RNAO16X24X13 RNAO15X23X13