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The trade negotiations between the United States and China plunged into a major crisis last week. China turned its back on some key points agreed by both sides. Trump raised tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese imports to the United States and was ready to expand them to more goods.
The trade war is likely to continue for some time, directly overlapping Trump's re-election campaign. Several states, including Iowa, a major agricultural state, which helped Trump take the top spot in 2016, have been badly hurt in the Sino-US trade war.
"If... by the time the presidential election campaign is fully launched, he hasn't solved the problem yet, and the soybean industry in the United States is badly hit... it will be a big problem for Trump," said a former Trump administration official who asked for anonymity.
Soybean is the most important export agricultural product of the United States, but soybean exports to China fell to a 16-year low in 2018.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Nuchin and other government advisers recently hinted that the two sides were close to reaching an agreement. If no agreement is reached, Trump's often boastful super bargaining power will be overshadowed.
Trump recently said that Chinese President Xi Jinping would soon go to Washington to celebrate the agreement.
But the failure to reach an agreement also highlights Trump's commitment not to sign agreements that do not meet his goals. Trump's meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un collapsed earlier this year, when Kim Jong-un hoped the United States would lift economic sanctions in exchange for partial denuclearization of North Korea.
Trump's advisers believe that strong performance will win the hearts of his grass-roots supporters, especially in the area of Sino-US policy.
"Overall, I think his tough stance on China is in his favor," said Spencer, a former White House spokesman at Trump and a former official at the U.S. Trade Representative's office during George W. Bush's term. "He has shown a genuine willingness to fight with all his might."


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