NEWS： China's economy is expected to stabilize by 6.4% in the third quarter of the yea
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The International Finance Research Institute of the Bank of China released a report on Wednesday, saying that with the acceleration of the implementation of the "six stability" policy and the low base factor, China's economy is expected to stabilize in the third quarter and GDP will grow by about 6.4% throughout the year; in terms of policy, fiscal policy should enhance efficiency, monetary policy should continue to play a counter-cyclical role, and interest rate reduction should become an important option.
In its report, the Bank of China predicts that more tax and fee reduction policies will be introduced in the second half of the year, especially those related to consumption and enterprise income tax. Interest rate reduction is expected to follow the following path: reducing the interest rates of various structural monetary policy instruments (such as TMLF, MLF) lowering the operating interest rates of OMO lowering the lending base interest rate (LRP).
"Looking forward to the second half of the year, Sino-US trade frictions and negotiations are full of variables. The substantial impact of Sino-US tariffs will continue to show or even further escalate. The global economic slowdown and the shift of monetary policy in major economies have added uncertainties to China's economy, with a greater negative impact." Bank of China said.
Domestically, the financial pressure and risk of local governments are increasing. Credit risk and liquidity risk faced by some small and medium-sized banks have aroused great concern in the market, and debt default incidents of small and medium-sized private enterprises will continue to occur, the report said.
"But at the same time, the Chinese government has enough policy space and tools to cope with the impact of uncertainty in the future. The"Six Steady"policy is expected to accelerate its implementation. The macro-economy will stabilize in the third quarter and GDP will grow by about 6.4% in the whole year."
They pointed out that the biggest uncertainties and challenges facing China's economy come from outside. This year, foreign trade exports will show low growth or even negative growth. We should fully understand and prepare for this. We expect export growth to be around - 1.5% in the third quarter and - 1% in the whole year.
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