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After the biggest monthly decline against the euro in two years in May and against the dollar, GBP = was stable in June as the market awaited the outcome of the battle between Conservative leaders and even Britain's next prime minister.
It is not clear how, when or even if Britain will leave the EU, but the outcome of the conservative two-man battle on July 23 may determine the outcome of Britain's withdrawal.
Boris Johnson is expected to beat Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt to become the new party leader and the next prime minister in the former London market.
Johnson took a tougher stand on Britain's retreat, claiming that Britain had to leave Europe on October 31 "whether there was an agreement or not".
The median forecast of currency strategists interviewed by Reuters on July 1-4 shows that if Britain does not agree to withdraw from Europe, the pound will fall to between $1.17 and $1.25 within a month of the withdrawal; the currency will be around $1.26 on Thursday.
"If we do withdraw from Europe without agreement, then economic worries will intensify. The impact may not be as big as the impact of the referendum results, but it is clear that there will also be a big market shock, "said Tony Nyman of Informa Global Markets.


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