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July 5 - Reuters poll shows that Brazilian Real is waiting for President Jair Bolsonaro's social security reform to make a breakthrough in Congress in order to consolidate recent gains. In the first half of 2019, Real's trend was turbulent.
The median forecast of 24 foreign exchange analysts surveyed on July 1-3 showed that the real was trading at 3.80 against the dollar 12 months later, close to the June forecast and almost identical to Thursday's exchange rate.
The Bolsonaro administration hopes that the House of Representatives will vote to pass the retirement bill before the parliamentary recess on July 18. Brazilian senators are expected to complete the legislative process by the end of the year.
"If the retirement reform bill is approved, it should boost Real's performance in the second half of the year," said You-Na Park, emerging market strategist at Commerzbank. They expect Real to report 3.30 a year later, the strongest estimate in the survey.
The situation in Argentina is different, with businesses and investors supporting the re-election of Argentine President Mauricio Macri in October. Some surveys show that his approval ratings are slightly behind those of the opposition Peronist Party.
The Argentine pesos have been doing well for two months in a row, and they have done well at a time when political risks are warming up. Its good performance is expected to continue until 2020, with the Argentine Peso expected to reach 52.7 against the US dollar in 12 months.


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