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According to the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism announced by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center (CFETS), Reuters estimates that the intermediate price of the RMB against the US dollar is expected to open around 6.8678 yuan on Thursday, up about 178 points from the previous day.
The RMB closed at 6.8809 yuan against the US dollar on spot last day, while the median price was 6.8856 yuan. According to the pricing mechanism, 47 points of rise in today's mid-price changes reflect the impact of market supply and demand, while 131 points of rise reflect the points needed to keep the overnight basket of exchange rates basically unchanged; the "counter-cyclical factor" effect has not yet taken effect.
Reuters estimated the median price of RMB against US dollar on the previous day was 6.8841 yuan, which was 15 points off the actual value announced by the foreign exchange trading center. Last day, Reuters calculated the CFETS index of RMB exchange rate, the SDR basket index and the BIS basket index according to the median price published by CFETS, which are 93.27, 93.45 and 96.72, respectively.
Since February 2016, China has initially formed a mechanism of "closing exchange rate + change of exchange rate of a basket of currencies". In February 2017, the reference period of the intermediate price to a basket of currencies was adjusted from 24 hours to 15 hours. At the end of May, the exchange rate working group of the self-regulatory mechanism of the foreign exchange market introduced the intermediate price quotation model. "Inverse Periodic Factor".
At the beginning of 2018, the Central Bank of China suggested that each quoting bank "adjust" the "counter-cyclical coefficient" in the quotation model to restore neutrality. Since June, the RMB has fallen rapidly and the market depreciation is expected to resume. On August 24, the central bank announced the restart of the counter-cyclical factor.


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