please contact sales@tanchin.hk for any inquiry
Reuters latest quarterly survey results show that China's economy will show a high and low trend this year with pending trade frictions between China and the United States and weak domestic and foreign demand. GDP growth is expected to fall to 6.2% in the second, third and fourth quarters, and 6.2% in the whole year. Inflation expectations are up to 2.3% compared with the previous survey, which is still a moderate growth.
The respondents'expectations of policy easing are less than those of the previous survey. The median forecast shows that the deposit reserve ratio will fall by 100 basis points in the third and fourth quarters. However, the respondents still believe that the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged next year.
Compared with the previous quarterly survey conducted by Reuters in April this year, GDP growth forecasts for the third and fourth quarters were revised down by 0.1 percentage points to 6.3% in the previous survey, while those for the whole year of 2019 and 2020 remained unchanged, growing by 6.2% and 6% respectively. There are 72 institutions involved in GDP forecasts.
It is worth noting that the Sino-US trade negotiations were frustrated at the end of April this year. In May, the two countries imposed additional tariffs on each other, the trade war resumed, and market confidence was severely damaged. The heads of state of the two countries met at the G20 summit in June and agreed to resume economic and trade negotiations, which alleviated their worries to a certain extent, but the negotiations still have a long way to go. The results of the Reuters survey in July were worse than those in April, reflecting the impact of trade war on economic trends.
"We expect GDP to grow by 6.3% in the second quarter, and the effect of credit stimulus in the first quarter will begin to decline in the second quarter." Huachang et al. of Guotai Jun'an Securities macro team said that the follow-up GDP growth mainly depends on how much momentum infrastructure can release under the policy stimulus, and when the policy to stimulate consumption will work.


please contact sales@tanchin.hk for any inquiry
PREVIOUS:Bearing side cover packing Improvement        

292/600-E-MB 292/560-E-MB 292/530-E-MB 292/500-E-MB 29296-E-MB 29292-E-MB 29288-E-MB 29284-E-MB 29280-E-MB 29276-E-MB 29272-E-MB 29268-E-MB 29264-E-MB 29260-E-MB 29256-E-MB 29252-E-MB RWCT38-A RWCT27-B RWCT27-C RWCT23