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Reuters polls released on Tuesday showed that South Korea's economy may resume growth in the second quarter, mainly driven by government spending, after an unexpected contraction in the first quarter.
According to the median forecast of the Reuters survey, South Korea, Asia's fourth largest economy, is estimated to grow by 1.0% in April-June from the previous quarter after seasonal adjustment, and the forecast data range from 0% to 1.3%.
This will be the best performance since the first quarter of 2018, but due to the contraction of 0.4% in January-March, the average growth rate in the first half of 2019 is expected to be only 0.3%.
"The Korean government subsequently implemented approved social infrastructure investment and welfare expenditure, which boosted economic growth in the second quarter," said Park Chong-hoon, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Korea, referring to the gradual implementation of budgetary expenditure earlier this year.
According to the survey, GDP growth in the second quarter is expected to rise slightly to 2.0% year-on-year from 1.7% in the first quarter. Sixteen economists forecast year-on-year growth.
Although growth momentum is likely to improve in the second quarter, private sector spending remains generally low, as a year-long trade conflict between the United States and China drags down global demand for South Korean exports.
The Bank of Korea unexpectedly cut interest rates last week and lowered its economic growth forecast for this year to 2.2%, a 10-year low, further straining the Korean economy as conflicts with Japan intensified. Japan has tightened restrictions on high-tech materials such as smartphone displays and chips exported to South Korea.
The Bank of Korea told parliament Tuesday in a set report that Japan's export restrictions on key chip and display materials remain one of the three major risks to the domestic economy.
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