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After Britain decided to withdraw from the EU in a referendum in 2016, there was no expected economic downturn. But under the pressure of withdrawal uncertainty and global economic slowdown, alarms are flashing in the world's fifth largest economy.
Data scheduled for August 9, a little more than two weeks after Johnson took office, may indicate the first contraction in economic output in the second quarter since 2012.
A large part of this weakness may be temporary: companies are stepping up production in early 2019 to prepare for the first deadline for Britain's exit from Europe in March; and automakers are shutting down their operations annually in early April to avoid any disruption.
But a survey of corporate purchasing managers showed that the slowdown in many industries worsened in the second quarter as the exit deadline was postponed to October 31.
"The June survey was particularly weak, suggesting that growth may still be weak," the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) warned last week. This raises the risk that the economy may be entering a full-scale recession.
In addition, there are signs that the employment boom is weakening. The boom brought unemployment to its lowest level since 1975 and boosted wages.


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