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According to a report issued by the State Balance Sheet Research Center of the National Laboratory of Finance and Development of China, the momentum of rapid increase in the leverage ratio of the real economy in the second quarter was restrained, rising from 248.8% to 249.5%, and the overall debt level was stabilized. Considering the steady growth, we need to tolerate the moderate increase of the leverage ratio, especially that of the central government.
China's leverage rate in the second quarter of 2019 was quoted by the First Financial Daily on Wednesday as pointing out that after a sharp rise of 5.1 percentage points in the first quarter, China's macro-leverage rate in the second quarter showed a marked decline. However, the fall in leverage in the second quarter will also put pressure on subsequent growth, and the trend of slight increase in leverage in the next quarter will be more difficult to sustain.
Overall, in the first half of 2019, China's macro-leverage ratio increased by 5.8 percentage points, up only 3.8 percentage points compared with 2017 and down 0.3 percentage points in 2018. The change of leverage ratio has reversed to a certain extent, the report said. Throughout the year, even if leverage remains strictly controlled in the second half of the year, the increase in leverage may exceed 7-8 percentage points.
The report also suggests that in the future, we should focus on the system, structure and efficiency, grasp the dynamic balance between stable growth and stable leverage, highlight the neutrality of competition, reverse the mismatch of leverage ratio, optimize the allocation of leverage and debt funds, and match credit resources (and returns) with risks to achieve steady growth. The organic unity of long and stable leverage should be avoided in the process of financial de-leverage and partial "bomb removal".


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