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According to a Reuters survey, the G10 exchange rate will be driven by the Sino-US trade war and the actions of the Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve/FED) in the coming months, while economic developments elsewhere in the world may have less impact.
The dollar is expected to remain strong this year as investors continue to pour into dollar-denominated assets that currently perform well. Trade uncertainty is usually beneficial to dollar assets.
The dollar index has steadily risen more than 2% this year, although the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates once and is expected to lower them further in the future. (Changes in exchange rates of major global currencies since this year: tmsnrt.rs/2pokkMt)
But narrowing spreads and market perceptions about the possible excessive strength of the dollar have led 80 foreign exchange analysts interviewed from August 29 to September 4 to believe that most major currencies will recover and rise against the dollar in a year's time.
But nearly two-thirds of the 48 analysts who answered another question said their dollar's expected risk was higher, suggesting that the dollar remained the most popular currency.
"The recent escalation of the trade war between the United States and China has been a theme in favour of the United States dollar. We are more pessimistic and feel that there is unlikely to be a trade agreement by the end of this year, which should provide good support for the dollar, "said Lee Hardman, a foreign exchange analyst at Mitsubishi UFG in London.
"Unless the Federal Reserve starts a more vigorous interest rate reduction cycle to address domestic recession concerns, it will be difficult to see a sustained reversal of the dollar's strong trend over the past few years in the short term."


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