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Although China's economic operation showed signs of improvement in September, in the context of weak domestic and foreign demand, the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the third quarter fell to a record low of 6% higher than expected, and in the next quarter or two, the downward pressure is hard to ease due to the global economic environment.
Analysts hold their own opinions on whether to break six in the fourth quarter. Generally speaking, given that the GDP growth rate in the first three quarters has reached 6.2%, it is unlikely that the counter cyclical policy will increase significantly this year. They pay more attention to the implementation of existing policies and reserve more ammunition for next year.
"In the fourth quarter, it is difficult for economic growth to recover significantly, and it is unlikely that domestic and foreign demand will rebound significantly." Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the financial research center of Bank of communications, said that although the data in September showed a tail raising performance, the economy continued the downward trend in the first half of the year.
He pointed out that the downward pressure on the economy is not small. To achieve "six stabilities" in the short term, counter cyclical macro policies should be moderately vigorous. It is necessary to implement tax reduction and fee reduction in finance, and it is necessary and space for monetary policy adjustment. Whether it is to directly reduce interest rates or guide LPR quotation to reduce, it is necessary to truly reduce the financing cost of the real economy.
China's gross domestic product (GDP) rose 6% year-on-year in the third quarter of this year, less than the median 6.1% predicted by Reuters, the lowest quarterly GDP since records began in 1992, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday. GDP in the first three quarters grew 6.2% year-on-year.


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