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According to a report released by the U.S. pork industry, global meat exporters have three years to take full advantage of the business opportunities brought about by the outbreak of deadly swine fever in China.
The forecast, released Wednesday, sets a timetable for companies to benefit from African swine fever (ASF). Since August 2018, swine fever has killed half of pigs in China, pushing domestic pork prices to a record high.
China's pork imports will peak in 2022, and then decline as domestic production recovers from the epidemic, according to the report prepared by food consultancy gira for the US pork industry. Gira said imports are expected to remain high until 2025, but prices will fall.
Compared with other suppliers, seaboard (SEB. A) and Smithfield foods, owned by Wanzhou International (0288. HK), face sales disadvantages because Beijing imposes heavy tariffs on US pork as part of the trade war.
However, according to employees, Smithfield transformed a slaughterhouse in the United States to supply pig carcasses to China. Tyson Foods (TSN. N) and JBS USA suspended the use of livestock drugs banned in Beijing.
"There is a huge gap now," Shao told reporters in a conference call.
Gira said China is expected to recover from African swine fever by 2027, but its production will still be 13% lower than before the confirmation of the first African swine fever in 2018. The high price of pork caused by the outbreak will change the long-term eating habits of Chinese people, with some consumers turning to cheaper chicken, the consultancy said.


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