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According to the nifd quarterly report released on Wednesday by the national finance and development laboratory, China's Research Institute, the leverage ratio rose by 5.1, 0.7 and 1.6 percentage points in the first three quarters of this year, accumulatively by 7.4 percentage points. In the whole year, the increase should be 8-10 percentage points. This is 2-4 percentage points lower than the sharp rise of macro leverage in 2008-2016. From the perspective of stable growth, such a rise is not high.
According to the report, from the perspective of the balance between stable growth and risk prevention, it is impossible to simply leverage. In addition to writing about the internal structure of leverage ratio, we need to work hard on supply side structural reform, boost confidence and mobilize enthusiasm in all aspects. In particular, we should mobilize the enthusiasm of the private economy, relax market access, adjust the pattern of income distribution, release consumption potential, and further expand the opening up to seek new global dividends.
"Considering the close relationship between the leverage ratio of residents and the housing price, the leverage ratio of residents still needs to be moderately stable. The stability of the leverage ratio of residents also ensures the stability of the house price. It's not good to shout "residents deleveraging", because it will bring chain reaction. " The report says.
Considering the relationship between corporate leverage and economic cycle, especially PPI, corporate deleveraging should be more targeted. Enterprise deleveraging is mainly state-owned enterprises deleveraging, while state-owned enterprises deleveraging is mainly zombie state-owned enterprises and financing platforms. Third, the government needs corresponding system cooperation to increase leverage.
This includes: tolerance for the rise of deficit rate, which should be considered in the budget at the beginning of the year; the central government's increasing leverage means that the central bank is required to increase its holdings of treasury bonds at the same time. In order to prevent "monetization of fiscal deficit", effective institutional constraints need to be formed.
Nifd quarterly report is one of the collective research results of the national finance and development laboratory. It aims to regularly, systematically and comprehensively track the dynamics of global financial market, domestic macro-economy, China's capital flow, national balance sheet, financial operation, bond market, stock market, real estate finance, financial institutions and other fields, and assess the risk status of various fields.


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