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According to the latest outlook report released by UBS wealth management, the international investment bank, according to the benchmark scenario, the global economic growth in 2020 is likely to fall to 3% from 3.1% in 2019. The uncertainties caused by geopolitics, government decision-making and election results are still high, while China's GDP growth may fall to 5.7%.
Hu Yifan, China's chief economist at UBS wealth management, said at a media conference on Thursday that UBS's official forecast for China's GDP is 5.7%, but if the Sino US negotiations are relatively smooth and next year enters phase II and phase III, it is likely that the growth rate will be higher, between 5.7-6%. China's GDP growth rate is still high in the global perspective. The downward growth rate is inevitable in the structural transformation, and the GDP will slowly decline to the stage of medium speed development.
Specifically, she said that in terms of investment next year, the downward trend of manufacturing industry will have a lower and lower driving effect on investment; real estate will continue to adjust the trend of soft landing in the future; next year, infrastructure will continue to be a buffer but it is unlikely to rely on infrastructure to boost investment growth. In terms of consumption, China needs to be resilient in consumption. This year's downward pressure on consumption mainly comes from automobiles. It's hard to make a fundamental change next year.
Due to the pressure of the trade war, China's import and export are negative this year, and it is expected to maintain near zero growth or even negative next year. "There are structural and cyclical pressures on China's economy." She said.


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