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However, in the next three months, the expectation of reducing the deposit reserve ratio will further increase, accounting for nearly 50% of institutions. Although the probability of another easing policy at the end of the year is reduced, from the point of view of this year's Cross quarter and cross half year end, the central bank has been quite skilled in controlling the fluctuation of ironing funds. Even if the policy tone is relatively restrained before the end of the year, it is expected that the pressure on funds will still be controllable.
In November, the central bank unexpectedly lowered the MLF (medium-term lending facility) and the open market seven-day reverse repo rate. With the weakening of easing expectations, most participating institutions expect the seven-day reverse repo operating rate to be stable in December, and only two institutions think the policy rate will be lowered.
In addition, the inflationary pressure caused by the sharp rise in pork prices is still hard to ease in the short term. The participating agencies' expectations for the year-on-year growth of CPI (consumer price index) in November reached 4.1%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the actual value in October, and the forecast range for this period is 3.3% - 4.7%. The estimated value of new RMB credit and social financing in November is 1.05 trillion and 1.25 trillion respectively.
China's November PMI (purchasing managers' index) significantly exceeded expectations, which made the bond market disadvantageous at the beginning of December, but still had doubts about the sustained economic recovery of the market. In addition, the prospect of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations was unclear, and there was limited space for the bond market to adjust significantly. Before the end of the year, the volatility converged and the range adjustment was maintained.
US President trump said Tuesday that a trade deal with China may have to wait until after the US election in November 2020, undermining hopes that the two largest economies will soon reach a preliminary agreement to ease their destructive trade war.
In terms of capital price, the forecast results show that the weighted average interest rate of overnight pledge repo, seven day interest rate and three-month Shibor of inter-bank deposit institutions in December are 1.2 BP lower, 13.9 BP higher and 5.2 BP higher than the actual monthly average in November, respectively.
The little change in overnight repo expectation indicates that the institution is not worried about the overall fund level at the end of the year, and it is normal for the expected interest rate of seven-day repo to rise, because the cross-year fund price may continue to run at a high level in the first few trading days before the end of the year.


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