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Money markets also see a 20% chance of a rate cut this month. But on January 17, after watching the weak performance of UK economic growth and inflation data at the end of 2019, and listening to a series of talks by Bank of England president Tony Carney and at least three central bank policy-making officials, the market's prediction on the probability of interest rate reduction rose sharply to 70%.
The reaction in the UK bond market was that yields fell by about 25 basis points. But the pound fell less than 1%. The possibility of interest rate cuts should usually lead to currency devaluation.
"It's not common to see such a departure between British debt and the pound," said Neil Jones, head of hedge fund sales at Mizuho. "The explanation should be that the UK bond market is strongly focused on interest rate expectations, while the UK pound... Is also aware of other factors such as longer-term investment flows."
In the week to January 14, bullish bets on the pound rose to a 21 month high, with speculators now holding large net "long positions" in the pound, according to the CFTC.
There are also few signs of concern in derivatives markets, with the one-month Sterling call option showing an implied volatility premium for the first time since October compared with the put option.


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