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Singapore's Dahua bank said in a report on Monday that China's official PMI for February and Caixin's PMI data for manufacturing industry published on Saturday showed that GDP growth in the first quarter will be much weaker than previously estimated; the Bank predicted that GDP growth in the mainland in the first quarter will be only 2.9% per year, which means that GDP will shrink quarterly (seasonally adjusted).
At the same time, Dahua bank also lowered China's GDP growth forecast for the whole year by 0.4 percentage points to 5.3%; GDP growth forecasts for the second, third and fourth quarters were 5.3%, 6.5% and 6.1%, respectively.
Affected by the new coronavirus epidemic, China's official manufacturing and non manufacturing PMI in February reached a record low of 35.7 and 29.6, respectively. As for Caixin, the manufacturing PMI in February fell sharply to 40.3, the lowest since the start of the survey in April 2004, far below market expectations.
Novel coronavirus data were more weak than expected, especially in the mainland factories, which require long time to recover their capacity to the level before the outbreak of the new coronavirus, the report said. PMI According to the National Bureau of statistics, as of February 25, 78.9% of the enterprises surveyed by purchasing managers returned to work in large and medium-sized enterprises, of which 85.6% were large and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises.
According to the report, enterprises are limited by production capacity, unable to fully compensate for the production loss caused by the shutdown, which will affect the recovery after the first quarter. In addition, the spread of the new coronavirus epidemic outside China is another concern, as it will hit global demand and the recovery of China's tourism and private consumption demand.


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