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Never avoid a recession because the Fed cuts interest rates. Take a defensive attitude, reduce the stock from "neutral" to "underweight", raise the cash from "neutral" to "increase", and maintain "increase" in US debt and gold.
? maintain the "overweight" rating on emerging markets and Chinese stocks. In response to the epidemic, emerging markets cut interest rates faster than developed countries.
? stocks in the euro area and Japan fell to "neutral" and "underweight" respectively, as the local stock market has not fully reflected the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain, and there are few measures that can be implemented by the central banks of the two countries.
Due to the impact of the epidemic, China's economic growth forecast this year is down 0.3% to 5.6%; global 2020 economic growth forecast is down to 2.5-2.6% from the original 2.8%.
? China's domestic liquidity is currently expected to be 18.9% of GDP, well below the average of 31.1%, which means there is a lot of room for the government to introduce more stimulus measures.
? although the possibility is not high, if the economic situation turns sharply, it is expected that after the emergency interest rate cut, the Federal Reserve will have 100 points of interest rate reduction space, and at the same time, the scale of available assets will reach 3 trillion US dollars.


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